By 
On 21 June 2021, millions of Ethiopians queued and voted in a shambolic election with a predetermined outcome. The ruling elite, its supporters, and the Addis Ababa elite are busy congratulating themselves for a peaceful vote. Outside of Addis Ababa and the Amhara region, the vote was largely ceremonial. In Oromia, the ruling Prosperity Party (PP) ran unopposed, and polls were canceled in broad swathes of the populous state due to a raging insurgency. Thousands of opposition supporters, members, and leaders remain imprisoned, including Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s key challengers.
Overall, 20 percent of the constituencies did not vote primarily due to security issues. Voting was postponed in at least 102 polling stations in several states, including Oromia and the Benishangul Gumuz. Elections in Somali and Harari states are pushed back to September due to logistical hurdles. The polls could not be organized in Tigray due to an ongoing war.
Ethiopia’s donors and allies, particularly the United States and European Union, have expressed growing concern about the conduct of the war in Tigray and the mishandling of the transition process in Ethiopia. The E.U. canceled its observation mission. The U.S. quietly sent observers while expressing “grave concern” about the political environment ahead of the vote.
The West’s disjointed and guarded approach to PP’s electoral theatre is hardly surprising. Three months ago, I argued that the West has enabled and empowered autocratic and repressive Ethiopian regimes throughout history. Western powers played a crucial role in the subjugation of the nations and nationalities that were forcefully incorporated into the Ethiopian Empire. Successive Ethiopian governments enjoyed Western aid and political support mainly due to Ethiopia’s strategic location, population size, and association with the imperial powers of Europe.
Ethiopia is once more at a crossroads with unprecedented levels of polarization and insecurity. On 28 June, after days of heavy battle losses, the Abiy government declared a unilateral temporary ceasefire shortly after the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) seized Tigray’s capital, Mekelle. Retreating Ethiopian soldiers raided the offices of multiple UN agencies in Mekelle and looted their “satellite communications systems.” TDF is reportedly making advances to other cities, including Shire and Aksum, previously under Eritrean occupation. Eritrean forces are reportedly withdrawing.
Facing defeat and international pressure, the Ethiopian government made a largely unexpected retreat. But it has not committed to dialogue to resolve the political differences that led to the war. The refusal to heed the chorus of call for political resolution is in keeping with Abiy’s bid to cling to power by force.
Before the June vote, in a desperate bid to cement its grip on power, PP defied domestic and international calls for postponement and for the vote to be preceded by dialogue and a consensus-building process. It also designated TPLF and OLA as terrorist organizations slamming the door shut on peace and instead opting for violence to resolve political differences.
Change in Western tone
Nevertheless, the West has signaled its concern and disapproval of the repressive regime in Addis Ababa. The scale and severity of the conflict in Tigray have made it difficult for them to turn a blind eye. International media outlets have chronicled egregious atrocities, sexual violence, and the use of rape and hunger as weapons of war. The U.S., U.N., E.U., and some European governments and international aid organizations are now warning about an impending famine.
Still, despite the overwhelming evidence of atrocities in Tigray, civil war in Oromia, and the country’s dismal political trajectory, so far, Western censure has been woefully inadequate. The West has not taken any concrete step to hold the autocratic regime in Ethiopia accountable. As a warning of sorts, the E.U. has paused budgetary support for the Ethiopian government. The U.S. has imposed visa restrictions on current and former Ethiopian, Eritrean, and TPLF officials “responsible for, or complicit in, undermining resolution of the crisis in Tigray.” The U.S. government has also “imposed wide-ranging restrictions on economic and security assistance to Ethiopia.”
These restrictions include a U.S. defense trade control policy to ensure that U.S. defense trade supports the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States. However, the U.S. continues to provide humanitarian assistance and critical aid to Ethiopia in “health, food security, basic education, support for women and girls, human rights and democracy, good governance, and conflict mitigation.”
The U.S. Senate has passed Resolution 97, calling for the cessation of hostilities, protection of human rights, unfettered humanitarian access, and independent investigations into credible atrocity allegations.
While limited in scope, these steps raise several questions. First, has the Western attitude and disposition toward Ethiopia changed? Can the people of Tigray, Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz, and other nations and nationalities trust the West? Second, will the U.S. and other Western governments stop supporting the PP regime with arms and economic assistance that it uses to suppress, intimidate, kill, and commit crimes against humanity? Third, has Ethiopia lost its charm with the West? Does the West care about the predicament of the oppressed nations or peoples in Ethiopia? Finally, do African lives matter in the eyes of Western governments?
The simple answer to these questions is no. The West needs a despotic government in Ethiopia that safeguards its interests. The regime in Ethiopia needs Western support for its existence.
Reasons for the change
The change in the western posture is the result of several diplomatic blunders by Ethiopian leaders. First, due to a lack of basic understanding of diplomacy, Ethiopian officials felt overconfident that the international community would bless their actions and revealed their genocidal intent. For example, Finland’s Foreign Minister and E.U. Special Envoy to Ethiopia, Pekka Haavisto, traveled to Ethiopia in February to discuss ending the war in Tigray. Instead, Ethiopian leaders told him: “They are going to destroy the Tigrayans … they are going to wipe out the for 100 years.”
Second, Ethiopian leaders made a war pact with Isaias Afeworki, a sworn enemy of the West, and enlisted his artillery support to attack Tigray. Third, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which dominated political and economic power in Ethiopia from 1991-2018, had close ties with the West. TPLF faced resistance to its repressive rule at every turn but maintained an absolute grip on power for 27 years due to its well-established diplomatic relationship with the West.
Fourth, besides having solid diplomatic ties, Tigray has a strong defense force that has roots in the guerrilla war of the 1980s. Having military strength is valued by the West. It only throws its support and influence behind a stronger group that can defeat its rivals and safeguard the West’s interest.
Finally, by aligning its forces with Amhara and Eritrea to attack Tigray, the Ethiopian government acted against the West’s interest. Therefore, the West’s current posture is to safeguard its interest and save a strategic ally. Tigray has always been a power contender in Ethiopia. Tigray has historical and ancestral ties with Amhara and Eritrea. The rivalry within the group existed in all recorded history. As Donald Levine reminds us, despite the rivalry, the group is “the historical bearer of Ethiopian Orthodox Christianity and the Solomonid monarchy.” Despite Amhara’s dominance in imperial Ethiopia, Tigrayans had a privileged position compared to Oromia and other southern nations. As a result, Tigrayans enjoy a deep-rooted relationship with the West.
An important step?
The 2021 election has brought the follies of unqualified western support for Ethiopian autocrats into focus. Yet, western messaging on the elections has been mixed at best. In a statement, the EU characterized the poll as an “important step in Ethiopia’s democratic process,” adding being able to vote is “the fundamental democratic right of all Ethiopian citizens.” The sham election was devoid of a meaningful choice for the vast majority of the electorate. Both the E.U. and the U.S. have expressed reservations but signaled a willingness to accept the electoral result.
Generally, other than providing rehearsed words of concern, the West continues to back the dictatorial government in Ethiopia. For example, the crisis in Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz has been unfolding since 2018. Though atrocities are being committed in these regions, the West, including the E.U., U.S., and U.N., has not even issued the customary statements of concern.
Marginalized nations and the West
What do the marginalized nations in Ethiopia seek from the West? The marginalized nations, such as Oromia, Somali, Sidama, Wolaita, and others, ask the West to take its fingers off the scale. The repressive government in Ethiopia cannot stay in power without the West’s support. The West’s economic, military, and diplomatic assistance are used to strengthen the repressive hand of the state by propping up forces and institutions that intimidate, subjugate, and kill masses.
The people of Ethiopia never elected their representatives through a fair, free, and competitive election. The legitimacy of Ethiopian autocrats comes not from the consent of the governed but the support of Western donor governments. Thus, the West’s alliance with dictatorial governments impedes freedom, equality, justice, and democracy. It also sows the seed of cynicism in the democratic ideals they tout to bring around the world.
A hidden war
The world is aware of the civil war in Tigray and the ethnic cleansing, war crimes, sexual violence, and the use of rape and hunger as weapons against the people of Tigray. However, in the west, central, and southern Oromia, and Benishangul-Gumuz, a hidden war has been raging since 2018. Like its predecessors, the Abiy government vowed to suppress the Oromo. It has imprisoned Oromo political leaders and closed Oromo opposition party offices to suppress the Oromo voice. As a result, many Oromo Qeerroo and Qarree, who through peaceful resistance brought the EPRDF government to its knees and ushered Abiy Ahmed to power, were forced to join the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA).
Eritrean troops have been mobilized, and Oromo opposition parties warn: “The atrocities, that were proved in Tigray operations and evidenced by the international community investigations, are observed in similar fashion in Oromia.” More Amhara, Ethiopian, and Eritrean forces are being mobilized in Oromia to intimidate, loot, rape, and kill with impunity. However, due to the hidden nature of the war, no reports, probes, and investigations of the war and atrocities have been carried out. It is unclear if Eritrean troops and operatives will withdraw from Oromia.
What should marginalized nations do?
The Ethiopian government has rejected dialogue and opted for violence, even using mercenaries from Eritrea and the Amhara state. It has also rebuffed calls for a negotiated political settlement and has conducted a sham election without meaningful competition. Yet, the African Union, the West, and the international community remain hamstrung to act. Given these prevailing realities, what shall the marginalized nations in Ethiopia do?
First, commit to the peaceful resolution of conflicts through a win-win negotiation. Violence destroys lives and scarce resources. Commitment to peace and dialogue to resolve political differences can result in a win-win for all parties.
Second, marginalized nations should understand that freedom, equality, justice, and democracy can only be secured through struggle and hard work. This is true whether one enjoys diplomatic backing or not. In a recent interview, General Tsadkan Gebretensae of the Tigray Defense Force said: “The diplomatic support that exists right now is a blessing, but victory will only be assured through your struggle and work… Therefore, capitalize on this support and mobilize to ensure your victory.”
Third, build institutions of resistance. Commitment to peaceful struggle and hard work is not enough to secure the rights of nations. Advocates need to organize, form democratic institutions to spearhead their struggle and achieve victory. I do not condone or advocate for violence, but I am pragmatic. Weakness does not avert war but only makes it probable. On the other hand, strength through organizing and unified resistance can prevent and deter conflict.
In conclusion, Ethiopia is marred in vicious cycles of violence due to the failure of Ethiopian rulers to learn from history. The country now faces a difficult test: To exist in its current form or splinter into multiple states as the empires before it. The Tegaru resistance in the face of Abiy’s rejection of peace and his prosecution of the Tigray war has once again made armed rebellion an appealing choice. Increasingly, young people see the struggle for freedom, dignity, equality, and justice as a cause worth fighting and dying for.
By rejecting repeated efforts to facilitate dialogue and peaceful resolution of political stalemate, by forging ahead with the sham election, and by designating opponents as terrorists, Abiy has sealed his choice and his legacy.
The West must now decide if its support for one man is more important than the unity and territorial integrity of Ethiopia, as well as the fate of more than 115 million Ethiopians.
Ultimately, Ethiopia’s history of conflict has shown that, in the famous words of JFK, “those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.” Thus, a small window is left to launch a comprehensive political dialogue to avert Ethiopia’s violent and chaotic disintegration. If this window closes, Ethiopia will violently and chaotically break apart, and Tigray might be the first but not the only state leaving the federation.
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