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The conflict in northern Ethiopia is entering a new phase as federal forces wrest back control of vast territories in Amhara and Afar states from Tigrayan rebels. Would the reversal open the door for peace talks?
Over the past year, the Ethiopian government and rebellious Tigray leaders have continuously rejected calls for a negotiated settlement. The international community, including the African Union (AU), has consistently called for a ceasefire, but the warring parties refused to negotiate in good faith. A winner-take-all modus operandi has made compromise difficult as both sides seek the destruction of the other through total battlefield victory. Further compounding the search for peace, the parties don’t trust each other or the mediators. What if the enemy is orchestrating my death? How can we trust the mediators? What if the mediators are pursuing regime change? What if the mediators are trying to save the government?
The year-long conflict has been devastating for the civilian population to state the obvious. Was the war avoidable?
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his supporters allege that the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) refused mediation efforts by Ethiopian elders and religious leaders. Authorities have repeatedly pointed to one specific initiative to argue that TPLF spurned peace efforts and instigated the conflict. Before the war broke out, a group of elders led by athlete Haile Gebrselassie went to Mekele twice to bring together the federal government and leaders of the Tigray Regional State.
But why did their effort fail to produce peace?
Haile and other mediators have since disclosed that the TPLF expressed its readiness to negotiate but asked the elders to invite opposition parties in Oromia, namely the Oromo Liberation Front and Oromo Federalist Congress, to the envisioned dialogue. Tigrayans at the time maintained that bilateral deals with the federal government would not solve the multifaceted political crisis facing the country. Still, the state-run media reported that TPLF outright rejected the elders’ plea. The elders say they begged the TPLF leaders to reconsider their preconditions and expressed disappointment after returning to Addis Ababa.
In other words, pre-war mediation failed primarily for three main reasons: First, the federal government and the elders did not want to pursue a broader, all-inclusive dialogue to put the shaky political transition back on the rails. Second, the elders did not maintain sufficient distance from central authorities to apply meaningful pressure to pursue a comprehensive peace process. Critics allege that the mediators were working with or at the request of the ruling Prosperity Party (PP). Third, TPLF leaders were unwilling to drop their preconditions and participate in a bilateral negotiation with PP.
Missed opportunities
Ethiopia missed several key opportunities for ceasefire and dialogue since the conflict broke out. For example, after the fall of Mekele at the end of November 2020, the federal government had a chance to pursue peace. When the interim government set up by PP failed to gain traction in the war-ravaged state, many called on Abiy and his government to seek a political solution by engaging the Tigrayan population. TPLF had retreated to the mountains to regroup and lost considerable political and military strength. Abiy resisted calls to pull back and pursue talks with a relatively weakened adversary. Despite total rejection by the people of Tigray, the federal government chose to muddle through, setting the stage for the commission of untold atrocities and rampant abuses of human rights.
The next opportunity came in June 2021 when the national army ceased all offensive and withdrew from Tigray. The government declared a unilateral humanitarian ceasefire, ostensibly to allow Tigrayan farmers to plow their land for the rainy season and to minimize civilian casualties since the Tigrayan rebels were allegedly using non-combatants as human shields.
The Tigray Forces claimed victory, scoffing at the government’s ceasefire declaration, saying it resulted from debilitating battlefield losses for the federal troops. To prove the point, Tigrayan rebels paraded tens of Ethiopian POWs through the streets of Mekele as locals celebrated the sudden turn of events. Tigrayan leaders insisted that Abiy was using the ceasefire declaration as an excuse to rearm, reorganize, and launch another attack. They called for a negotiated ceasefire and laid out several conditions for talks.
The federal government, for its part, proscribed TPLF and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) as terrorist organizations, dashing any hopes for negotiations. Since June, the A.U., U.N., U.S., U.K., Kenya, and other international actors have engaged in shuttle diplomacy to broker a ceasefire with little success. Instead, the conflict expanded into Afar and Amhara regions, causing untold suffering and displacing millions more from their homes. It has also pulled in regional and global countries through drone and other arms support to the federal government.
The conflict in northern Ethiopia has now taken the form of a regional proxy war with multiple external actors.
Let us also remember: As the northern conflict raged on, catastrophic devastation has been occurring in other parts of the country, particularly in Oromia and Benshingul Gumuz states, due to ongoing war and human rights abuses amidst a dearth of media coverage. Widespread rape, extortions, extrajudicial killings, and massacres have been reported; millions have been displaced from their homes. It is not just combatants that are being killed. Civilians, especially women and children, are the primary victims of the ongoing carnage.
Across Ethiopia, a silent humanitarian crisis continues to unfold out of sight amid communication blackout and limited aid access. People are starving to death in Amhara, Afar, and Tigray states. Essential services are hard to come by for millions of people in Oromia, Benishangul Gumuz, and elsewhere around the country. Drought is ravaging parts of Oromia and Somali states.
In short, Ethiopia is literally bleeding. But it does not have to be that way.
A moral appeal for peace
Ethiopia has moral leaders who can build bridges for lasting peace and a culture that respects elders. Elders, religious leaders, and civil society organizations have a moral responsibility to call and work for peace. The time to do that is now. Ordinary people look to these leaders for guidance and counseling. They have traditionally sanctioned compliance with social norms by setting the tone for their members. Elders, religious leaders, and civil society organizations have nonpartisan platforms and a large following that can be swayed toward peace. Yes, this conflict has affected all spheres of Ethiopian life. It has divided religious leaders and institutions. Neighbors have turned on each other. Elders and religious figures have called for more war instead of peace.
But we must not lose hope because of the partisan acts of few.
Religions are often mentioned in connection with communal conflicts and wars in Ethiopia, but they are not the source of these problems. Political groups have at different times sought to manipulate religious institutions and leaders to further their repressive ends. Yet, I believe much has survived and still endures. The moral strength of elders and leaders still holds considerable sway in this deeply religious country.
The current state of the conflict is an opportune moment for Ethiopian moral anchors to rise to the occasion. Civic and religious leaders need to step up and develop a roadmap that provides a space for confidence-building and neutral homegrown mediation. The international community can provide technical expertise and financial support.
Ethiopia needs the constructive role of elders, religious leaders, and civic organizations more than ever before. These leaders must use all available platforms to promote and organize an all-inclusive peace process, leading to restorative justice and national reconciliation. To jump-start an Ethiopia-led peace process, mediators should:
- Seek and secure the release of all political prisoners;
- Facilitate humanitarian aid to all displaced and affected communities;
- Establish an independent mechanism for investigation of all atrocities;
- And urge all warring factions to respect domestic and international laws.
The most immediate concern for many Ethiopians is ending the ruinous wars in Tigray, Oromia, and elsewhere. All the other pieces, including the debate over the country’s future, and post-conflict recovery and rebuilding, can only unfold after silencing the guns.
In a developing country reliant on food aid, the rapidly eroding peace calls for urgent action to prevent humanitarian crises that will last years into the future. Toward this end, all parties, including rebels in Tigray, Oromia, and Benishangul Gumuz states, must embrace peace and work to avert the disastrous collapse of the country.
Ethiopian history teaches us that it is possible to win a war and subjugate the enemy, but peace can only be achieved when each side seeks it in good faith with commitment and willingness to pursue a collective future. I hope we learn the right lessons this time around. Peace cannot wait.
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