Prosperity “Federalism”?

In late 2019, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed dissolved the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and merged three of the four ethnic-based parties that make up the EPRDF, and allied parties into a single outfit called Prosperity Party (PP). The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which founded the EPRDF in the 1980s and dominated the coalition until 2018, opposed the merger on legal and policy grounds.

This disagreement formed the basis for the deepening confrontation between the TPLF-run regional government in Tigray and the federal government in Addis Ababa. The establishment of the PP on the grave of the EPRDF meant that, for the first time, three-member parties of the EPRDF and five regional affiliates parted ways with its godfather – TPLF.

It also meant that ethnic-based political parties representing eight of the nine regional states that make up Ethiopia’s federation suddenly dissolved and disappeared. The radical and unprecedented move threatened to alter the multinational character of the Ethiopian federation. It raised concerns about the prime minister’s commitment to the federal order and the policy objectives of building a democratic state committed to pluralism, unity in diversity, and the co-existence of multiple identities.

Several intellectuals, political activists, and opposition figures pointed out the structural tension between the architecture and the ideological foundation of the new party and the central tenets of multinational federalism. For many elites within the EPRDF and beyond, PP was an amorphous political construct that lacked ideological coherence and it is viewed as a menace that will haunt Ethiopia for decades.

Abiy and his supporters insist that he is committed to strengthening the federal system in ways that address long-standing economic and political questions, but his everyday actions suggest otherwise. Abiy wants Ethiopians to refocus their national emphasis away from ethnicity. In fact, Abiy is pursuing what I call “Prosperity Federalism,” a politico-economic apparatus that allows the prime minister to ground the Ethiopian society in narratives and ideations about his own notions of prosperity. So, what is prosperity federalism? Can PP really strengthen Ethiopia’s multinational federalism by grounding it in narratives of revival and prosperity as the PM and some PP officials often claim? Can the project succeed under current political realities?

PP as a “Party-State”

In his first months in office, Abiy appeared to blame the absolute power of the EPRDF in Ethiopian politics on its undemocratic culture, revolutionary democracy ideology, and the practice of democratic centralism. Abiy repeatedly promised to decouple the party from the government but his PP retains the same absolute control over governmental functions. Indeed, the party secretariat is now both the brain and the nerve center of the government, where the views of the party office trump the decisions of government officials.

Today, if you look at the government in action, with its ins and outs, the rules it upholds, and the exceptions it makes, it is clear that the ultimate power in matters of governmental action and decision rests in the hands of the party office. Thus, if a party official orders the court or police officer to do or not to do something, then, that illegal order from the party office carries more weight than the lawful decision of a judge or a police commander.

Government bodies, including the judicial branch and the security services, continue to operate as mere instruments or extensions of the party advancing, not party manifesto that has become policy through laws and other legally recognized channels but raw party diktats. Party officials intervene in a range of governmental issues from the administration of justice to the ability of local governments to run their internal affairs. It was so yesterday; it is so today.

Just like the EPRDF period, all civil servants today are expected to be members of the ruling party, without which they would risk losing their jobs. This fusion of government and the party politicized public institutions and the civil service, allowing the party to instrumentalize state institutions, including the courts to go after political opponents.

The recent decision by the House of Federation to postpone the election, and the meticulously choreographed theater put on by the Council of Constitutional Inquiry to create the impression of inclusivity and dialogue shows how this fusion between the party and state institutions is being used by the ruling party to advance its interests. Today, Several governmental agencies that were constitutionally designed to be independent and neutral in political matters, including the civil service and the army, no longer even pretend to be independent or neutral.

How’s PP organized?

PP has an Executive Committee consisting of 52 members and a Central Committee of 360 members. Oromia, Amhara, and SNNP each have 9 members in the Executive Committee totaling 27. The remaining regions (Somali, Afar, Harari, Gambela, and Benishangul-Gumuz) each have 5 members in the Executive Committee totaling 25. In the Central Committee of PP, all eight regional states are represented by an equal number of members, each fielding 45. These handouts of seats are arbitrarily and there is no criteria or a reasoned public policy justification underpinning the decision.

During the EPRDF period, the distribution of votes within key committees were justified by the principle of one nation, one vote. Abiy’s PP represents a significant departure from the multinational ethos that underpinned EPRDF (at least theoretically) but there is no convincing explanation for allocating an equal number of representations for Oromia and Harari, for example.

Members of the PP Executive committee and the central committee are the top officials of the party exercising considerable governmental power both at the regional and federal levels.

PP has a president and vice president. The president of the party has ultimate power over all members of his party. The party has one head-office and branch offices in all regions of the country, except in Tigray. The Secretariat of PP (currently headed by Binalf Andualem), in consultation with the president (Abiy Ahmed), assigns the secretaries of all regional branch offices including in Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa. “ለፓርቲው ዋና ፅ/ቤት ተጠሪ የሆኑና በክልሎች ስም የተሰየሙ የክልል ቅርንጫፍ ፅ/ቤቶች ይደራጃሉ-Accountable to the party’s head office, regional branch offices named after regions shall be established” (Article 25 of PP’s bylaw); “የፓርቲው ዋና ፅ/ቤት ተጠሪነቱ ለፓርቲው ፕሬዚዳንት ይሆናል-the head-office of the party is accountable to the President of the party” (Article 24 of its bylaw). All regional branch offices are accountable to the head office and the party office is directly accountable to the president. This makes PP an extremely centralized party.

More consequential for the country’s multinational set up is the controls PP exercises over regional governments through the party machinery. PP assigns coordinating committees for each regional state. The chairperson of this coordinating committee automatically becomes the president of the regional state or the sitting president will be assigned as chair of the committee.

The main duty of this committee is to coordinate political, organizational and the mobilization works of the party by implementing the decisions and directions of the party given by the PP head office. Members of the committee hold the positions of vice president in the regions, including the regional office of the party Secretariat, political affairs, and organizational affairs of the party. Hence, the regional government leadership is assigned from the center by the party.

The president of PP, in consultation with the executive committee of the party, assigns the coordinating committee of regional states. “የክልሎች አስተባባሪ ኮሚቴ ተጠሪነታቸው ለፓርቲው ስራ-አስፈፃሚ ይሆናል-regional coordinating committees are accountable to the party’s executive committee” (see chapter four, article 28 of the party’s bylaw). The party’s executive committee is chaired by the president of the party. Furthermore, Article 20/7 of PP’s bylaw states that “ስራ-አስፈፃሚው ስልጣንና ተግባሩን በከፊል ለፓርቲው ፕሬዚዳንት በውክልና መስጠት ይችላል-the executive committee may delegate part of its duties and responsibilities to the president of the party.”

This meant, the regional coordinating committee, in other words, regional government leaders, are influenced or assigned by the prime minister and his executive committee through the party line. It also means that the regional state president is accountable to the prime minister, not the regional legislature. The prime minister can remove or replace any regional state official at any time through party lines in direct contradiction to the autonomy of the regions.

The Legality of PP

Let’s now consider the legality of the Prosperity Party. Article 67 of the Electoral Law lays out the requirements to register a political party in Ethiopia. Per Proclamation 1162/2019, “1/ Any application for registration of a political party shall be signed by the party leader and submitted to the Board. 2/ The application submitted in accordance with Sub-Article (1) of this Article shall be accompanied by the following documents: a) the memorandum of association of the party; b) the political program of the party; c) the by-laws of the Political Party.”

These necessary registration documents have to be approved by a General Assembly of the party as per Articles 72, 73, and 74 of the proclamation. Contrary to these legal provisions, the Prosperity Party’s political program, memorandum of association, and by-laws are not approved by a general assembly as the party did not hold one—“ብልረጽግና ፓርቲ ጠቅላላ ጉባዔውን እስከሚያካሄድ የኢህአዴግ ምክር ቤትና ስራ-አስፈፃሚው የፓርቲ አመራር ሆኖ ይቀጥላሉ፤ ይህ እንደተጠበቀ ሆኖ በምክር ቤቱና በስራ-አስፈፃሚ የምሳተፉት የአጋር ድርጅቶች ተወካዎች ብዛት በስራ-አስፈፃሚው ይወሰናል-up until Prosperity Party hold its general assembly, the EPRDF Council and its Executive Committee shall continue providing leadership; notwithstanding the above clause, the number of representatives from the affiliate parties who shall take part in these council and the executive committee shall be determined by the executive committee” (Article 33 (3&4) of the PP by-law, translation is mine).

Moreover, Article 67 (f) of the Electoral Law requires, before registration, a “document showing that the political party leaders are elected per the party’s by-law and in a free and democratic process.” Rushed as its merger was, PP simply bypassed these procedural steps, including the election of its leaders. Yet the Electoral Board approved the registration in a record time, raising concerns about its ability to withstand pressure from the ruling party.

In practice, since PP is yet to hold its general assembly, it can’t elect central committees, executive committees, and the president of the party. The prime minister and members of PP’s executive and central committees were not elected as per the electoral law.

PP and multinational federalism 

Despite Abiy’s recent claim that PP is a multinational party, the Party is a unitary and centralized entity both constitutively and practically. Under PP’s straitjacket, power is concentrated in the hands of the party leaders, and the prime minister has the means to distribute rent, reward or punish any member of the party, including a regional president with no checks and balances.

After dismantling the EPRDF coalition and establishing a unitary party in which ultimate power resides in its president, Abiy essentially recreated Ethiopia as a unitary entity in which power is integrated and centralized than the EPRDF era. Whatever little autonomy that regional states practiced before PP disappeared with the dissolution of EPRDF.

Abiy consistently accused the EPRDF of being undemocratic and weakening regional autonomy through unwritten party channels. But instead of fixing EPRDF’s democratic deficit, he re-inscribed those very undemocratic practices, further entrenching ruling party hegemony including in matters constitutionally reserved to the regions.

Today, for all problems in Ethiopia, political solutions are to be found only in Arat Kilo, the national palace. This is why I call the evolving system of prosperity “federalism,” which uses the party structure as a means to control everything.

While Abiy and PP officials insist that PP strengthens federalism, in practice, PP’s ideological dispositions and party structure represents a move away from the ideas of self-determination, self-rule, and regional autonomy that are central to the country’s multinational constitutional settlement.

Federalism is primarily about maintaining equilibrium between self-rule at the state level and shared rule at the center. In federations, powers are divided between federal and state governments. Leaders of the states or provinces are chosen by regional state councils and are only answerable to the same. No upward accountability. The center cannot assign a leader to a state. If regional leaders are accountable to the center, it is not federalism, rather centralized unitary administration. If the center makes or breaks anything and everything, then, that is not a federation at all. Nor is it democratic.

The member states of the federation are established on the principle of self-determination of the Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples of Ethiopia outlined under Article 39 of the constitution. This right is guaranteed to national groups. That is why the current system is called multinational federalism. In principle, no official of the PP has rejected multinational federalism. They insist that the party will strengthen the federal arrangement. But practically, what they are experimenting with is neither multinationalism nor federalism.

Prosperity ‘federalism’ is a power arrangement reminiscent of an empire where sovereignty resides in the King, not the people. Abiy Ahmed is establishing a Big-Man rule in Ethiopia. He has built a personality-cult focusing on his image and glorification. He wants his name to be mentioned as a king by all. His portrait is superimposed at the entrance of every government office in the land and the desks of ministers alike akin to how one keeps family photos at a workstation.

Abiy has repeatedly told the public that he is the seventh king of Ethiopia, a childhood dream of his instilled in him by his mother. Today, Abiy’s power overrides federal and regional constitutions and laws. His critics contend that, sooner or later, Abiy will officially abandon Ethiopia’s multinational constitution to replace it with a presidential system that is administratively convenient for him. Such a system would allow him to rule indefinitely. As a result, many federalists accuse PP of a menace to Ethiopia’s multinational federalism and the integrity of the Ethiopian state.

Conclusion

To sum up, Abiy gave top urgent priority to the EPRDF merger in the face of opposition, including from his close allies, from a long list of “reform” promises. When Abiy’s reform agenda was first introduced, it looked to many people that Ethiopia was reforming its authoritarian state system into a democratic one. However, the reality was to the contrary.

Abiy’s merger of different parties was meant to re-centralize and consolidate his political powers. All institutional reforms that were promised including justice, security, human rights, electoral democracy, freedom of assembly and speech were all strategic moves to gain the public support necessary to give Abiy the room to consolidate power.

Ethiopia is not democratizing, and the multinational federal order faces a major risk. Even if Abiy refrains from changing the constitution and abolishing the multinational order due to its political repercussions, Ethiopia’s system will remain federal only in name. Already, the country is being governed as a unitary state where the premier exercises total control throughout the country, except in the Tigray region.

Abiy views himself as a godsend to save Ethiopia from its people but his messiah complex, ad-hoc leadership style, and his shallow understanding of Ethiopia’s complex past and established asymmetries raise serious concerns about his ability to hold Ethiopia together, let alone usher in an era of prosperity.

Meanwhile, some urban elites and his supporters – both the confused and the convinced – appear comforted by the donor-funded sleek PR and the flowerpots, fountains, amusement parks, and the repainting of the palace as a sign of the coming prosperity.